AGRA

FEATURED PUBLICATION
May, 2024

Food Security Monitor April 2024

Food Security Updates

In Southern Africa, despite the eminent food crisis expected in the ensuing months, particularly in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, due to the impact of the prolonged El Niño driven drought, food supply is improving, and maize prices have been observed to have dropped compared to the previous month due to ongoing harvests, albeit below-average. Nonetheless, food insecurity concerns persist in typical deficit production areas of southern Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern and northern DRC driven by the El Niño-induced drought, macroeconomic shocks, and in the DRC and northern Mozambique by conflict.  Preliminary estimates show a regional deficit of about 5 million Mt of maize grain, with Zambia and Malawi needing about 1.6 million Mt. In Zimbabwe, estimates show that the harvest from the 2023-24 season may decline by 72% from last year due to the worst drought experienced in four decades as a result of the El Nino conditions.

In Eastern Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia remain the high food insecure countries in the region driven by deteriorating macro-economic conditions, high incidences of conflicts that are disrupting livelihoods, trade, and food assistance delivery, and a high burden of returnees from Sudan in the case of South Sudan. The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG) estimate 79,000 people to be at risk of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) conditions in South Sudan.

 

In West Africa, high food insecurity, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes prevail across the region driven by poor macroeconomic conditions, conflicts and insecurity, early onset of the lean season with its attendant high food prices.

 

At the Global level, both the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) and the International Grain Council’s (IGC) Grain and Oil Index (GOI) show a minor uptick in grain prices in April over March supported by a marginal increase in cereal prices counterbalanced by stability in wheat prices driven by unfavourable production prospects among major producers and strong competition among major exporters.

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