Until 2017, Rwanda depended on imports to meet its need of hybrid seed for maize, soybean and wheat, some of the country’s staples. The country was importing around 3,000 tons of hybrid maize seed, 800 tons of wheat and 700 tons of soybean every year to meet its local demand. 

However, through support from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), the Rwandese government and private seed companies in the country were able to advance their seed production and multiplication capacity to such an extent that the country is now self-sufficient in hybrid maize. 

To date, AGRA has invested in 15 private seed companies across Rwanda including Ignite Seed Company, one of two women-owned seed companies in the country. Ignite produces soybean, bean and maize seed. Founded in 2014 by veterinarian Norah Kamashazi, the company has grown to produce 4.2 metric tons per hectare of hybrid maize and has operations in three districts — Gatsibo, Bugesera and Nyagatare. To promote further growth, AGRA is helping Ignite procure large-capacity seed conditioning machines. 

Likewise, the Rwanda Improved Seed Company (RISCO) has increased its production of maize and bean seed to 100 tons per season from just 12 tons previously. Through the partnership, RISCO has increased its cultivation of early generation seed from 30 to 84 hectares, creating new employment opportunities as well.

“Currently, we employ over 100 casual workers and four retained staff compared to 30 casual workers and one retainer previously,” said John Muvara, RISCO’s managing director, in recognition of the benefits accrued from the partnership. 

To ensure sustained improved seed production, AGRA funded the training of Rwandan researchers (29 with Master of Science degrees and eight with Doctor of Philosophy degrees), who have now developed 47 improved crop varieties of quality seeds, including maize, beans, soybeans, Irish potatoes, sweet potatoes and bananas. 

Overall, the partnership has invested USD $10.8 million in creating a functional and strong seed system in the East African country with over 4,500 metric tons of certified hybrid maize, bean, potato and soybean seed being produced and sold locally. 

On the understanding that a strong regulatory environment is needed for the seed value chain to meet international standards, USD $1.7 million was invested in establishing a policy and legal framework for the industry. This was to ensure that smallholder farmers in the country have access to high-quality seed of improved varieties and that local seed companies would be positioned to export their seed to the rest of the world.

The partnership supported a study tour by Rwanda’s seed system players to Kenya to study the country’s Seed Enterprise Management Institute (SEMIs) for best practices, and to Zambia to observe the Seed Control and Certification Institute’s regulatory approach to inspections and services. 

“Through the study tour, I realized that institutional partnerships play a major role in seed regulation and stabilization of seed systems,” said Saidi Rumanzi Mbaraka (Ph.D.), College of Agriculture, Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine (CAVM), University of Rwanda.

“The trip was a proper opportunity to practically experience how various stakeholders jointly contribute to high-quality seed availability,” added Kadafi Misago (Ph.D.), College of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda.

Through such investments, 463,500 farmers now have access to improved seed, out of whom 239,055 have adopted these yield-raising inputs. Rwandan farmers now source 80% of improved seed locally. 

“Farmers are able to get quality seeds at affordable prices and plant on time. This is important to improve crop production and farmers’ household incomes,” said Fidel Nizeyimana, a researcher at the Rwanda Agriculture Board.

Farmers in the country are now reporting impressive harvests from the improved seed, with hybrid maize yielding 7 tons per hectare, in comparison to traditional varieties that average 2 tons per hectare.

Additionally, because of the low cost of domestically produced seeds relative to imported seeds, farmers are able to save on input investments, further increasing their profits. Hybrid maize seed produced by RISCO cost RWF 1,450 (USD $1.44) per kilogram, while imported improved seeds retail at RWF 2,050 (USD $2.04) per kilogram. 

Going forward, the production and distribution of improved seeds will remain part of AGRA’s strategy for supporting a food systems transformation in Rwanda and Africa. This focus is in keeping with research findings showing that farmers’ incomes and overall food security can be significantly improved through the cultivation of improved crop varieties and high-quality seeds, accompanied by other technologies, such as fertilizers.

Originally published

Last month, over 100 world leaders gathered at the UN Food Systems Summit (UN FSS), during the annual UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City, to review the progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals Last month, over 100 world leaders gathered at the UN Food Systems Summit (UN FSS), during the annual UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City, to review the progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In the run-up to the high-profile forum, and afterwards, AGRA and the AGRF convened government leaders, scientists, international organizations, donor partners, and farmers in side-events to outline the priorities for the next nine years. These side-sessions (summarized below) drew from the regional pathways and priorities identified at the AGRF Summit in Nairobi, Kenya, two weeks ahead of the UN FSS; they were also informed by the Africa Common Position to the UN Food Systems Summit.

• Six African heads of State and 20 ministers presented national pathways emerging from the past year of national dialogues on Food Systems transformation at the UNFSS. Country teams and technical experts from AGRA supported more than 15 African countries in the development of their food systems agendas and pathways, in addition to facilitating development of the African continental position paper, also presented by the African Union President, H.E. President Felix-Antoine Tshisekedi.
• September 21, 2021: AGRA and the AGRF hosted a high-level UN FSS side event under the theme: “Delivering on the African Agenda in Building Resilient Food Systems”. The event brought together two high-level cross-cutting panels to address African challenges and solutions in the transition to resilient food systems. The speakers further highlighted what needs to be done to turn political ambition into reality, building on commitments and ambition out of the Ministerial Roundtable outcomes from AGRF.
• September 22, 2021: AGRA, through its VALUE4Her platform, hosted a special side event to highlight the role of women in food systems transformation, and to create awareness on the critical role of women in achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The TalkCorner event featured Dr Hajia Salamatu Garba, the founder of Women Farmers Advancement Network (WOFAN), who reflected on the lessons from her work in advancing women’s participation in food systems transformation. Dr Garba is the winner of the inaugural VALUE4HER Women Agripreneurs of the Year Awards (WAYA2021), recognized for her effort in mobilizing functional women led smallholder farmer’s groups, as well as creating commercially registered women agribusinesses.
• September 24, 2021: Generation Africa, a thematic platform of the AGRF Summit; in conjunction with AGRA, hosted a youth-centric UN FSS side event titled, ‘The Favourite Food Extravaganza’, which showcased and highlighted the nutritional aspects of Africa’s indigenous dishes in a fun and relatable manner. The extravaganza was planned in alignment with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – in particular, to end malnutrition in all its forms by 2030 and to strengthen the link between diet, food systems and health.
• September 29, 2021: Dr. Kalibata met with the US Deputy Secretary of Agriculture, Dr. Jewel Bronaugh, in a meeting that was also attended by UN Chief of Staff, Adam Gerstenmeier, AGRA’s Vice President of Strategic Partnerships & Chief of Party, Vanessa Adams, and AGRA’s US representative Marshall Matz. Discussions at the meeting covered research and extension, as well as the support that AGRA might gain from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) through a new Memorandum of Understanding. 

September 29, 2021: AGRA President Dr. Agnes Kalibata met with USAID Administrator Samantha Power to review the outcomes of the UN FSS especially focusing on President Biden’s commitment of USD 10bn, of which half will be for global support. The two principals discussed strategies for supporting countries in fast-tracking the transformation of their food systems, and implementing critical agricultural and food systems transformations to reduce hunger and malnutrition while adapting to climate change extensively highlighted in the National Pathways submitted by member states prior to the New York Summit. Administrator Power and Dr. Kalibata also discussed how AGRA can support Feed the Future’s strategy refresh and significant in-country efforts to reach increase farmers productivity with climate-adapted crop varieties and enhanced food fortification, while building more nutritious, sustainable, and equitable food systems.

Delivering on commitments and increasing investment in food and agriculture on the continent preoccupies technical teams and continental thought leaders across the continent. Catalyzing thematic working groups and mobilizing critical stakeholders are core to AGRA’s mission. The AGRF Summit is Africa’s pre-eminent forum that brings together political leaders, scientists, researchers, entrepreneurs and farmers on a common platform to discuss strategies and strike partnerships for the transformation of the continent’s food systems.  The AGRF Summit and Partners Group are AGRA’s premier advocacy platform and communications highlight of the year.

The 2021 AGRF Summit was held from September 6-10 in Nairobi, Kenya. At the AGRF Summit, AGRA launched the Africa Agriculture Status Report,  and curated a Youth Town Hall which brought the needs and aspirations of youth to the attention of Governments and stakeholders. AGRA also supported a high-level presidential summit which brought together five of Africa’s presidents to review strategies for fast-tracking Africa’s food system transformation.  The newly-launched Centre for African Leaders in Agriculture (CALA) hosted a dialogue on the nature of African leadership for food systems transformation in Africa. The Farmers’ Forum cast a spotlight on the continent’s farmers by inviting them to chart the pathways to resilient food systems in the continent. The Africa Food Prize was awarded to ICRISAT for improving food security on the continent. Additional information about these and other highlights of AGRA at the AGRF are presented below.

Launches

Africa Agriculture Status Report  – AGRA President H.E. Dr. Agnes Kalibata and Chief of Staff and Strategy Andrew Cox led the launch of the Africa Agriculture Status Report (AASR), which addresses the tough questions that accompany the challenge of delivering inclusive growth and enhancing government capacity. The AASR serves as a handbook for governments and their supporting partners to deliver agricultural and economic transformation.

CESSA – AGRA unveiled the Center of Excellence for Seed Systems in Africa (CESSA) to champion the development of quality seed of improved varieties in Africa. Hosted by AGRA, CESSA will convene seed actors to help fill gaps, and build capacities and varieties that respond to needs of farmers in Sub Saharan Africa. The Center will begin operations in 2022, supporting governments, the private sector and development partners to deliver modern, effective and resilient seed systems that serve African farmers better. It will also strengthen the seed value chain, particularly variety development and release, production and distribution of both early generation and certified seed, farmer awareness creation and participation, quality assurance, national planning, policy and regulatory frameworks.  

Innovating, Scaling new Technologies, Delivering on Commitments and Mobilizing Investments drove AGRA Sessions at the AGRF

Presidential Summit – A high-level presidential summit brought together five of Africa’s presidents to review strategies for fast-tracking Africa’s food system transformation. The five were: host H.E. Uhuru Kenyatta (Kenya), H.E. Paul Kagame (Rwanda), H.E.  Dr. Lazarus Chakwera (Malawi), H.E. Yoweri Museveni (Uganda), and H.E. Hage Geingob of Namibia. Joining them in a panel discussion were Tanzania’s Vice President Dr. Philip Mpango, IFAD President Gilbert F. Houngbo, H.E. Josefa Sacko, the Commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture at the Africa Union Commission, Salamatu Garba, theSenior Gender Specialist at UNDP-GEF Project, and Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank Group. The session was moderated by Dr. Vera Songwe, the United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa. 

Youth Townhall – AGRA curated and organized a Youth Townhall that provided a unique platform for young people to present their issues, challenges and  aspirations to Governments and stakeholders for policy consideration as well as interact with various ecosystem players and their peers. The Townhall cast a spotlight on 4-K Clubs, a new policy recently approved by the Kenyan government, with the aim of returning agricultural learning and clubs in schools, both at primary and secondary schools’ levels in Kenya. At the session, an agreement was made with stakeholders to create awareness about the 4-K club’s policy, bolster its implementation in Kenya and inspire other governments in Africa to replicate this policy.

Collaborative Food Systems Leadership – The newly-launched Centre for African Leaders in Agriculture (CALA) hosted a dialogue on the nature of African leadership for food systems transformation in Africa. The session sought to catalyze a professional movement of food system leaders who work collaboratively to build sustainable food systems for the well-being of all African citizens and its environment. The session also started a new dialogue on the nature of African leadership for food systems transformation in Africa.

Farmers’ Forum  – The Farmers’ Forum cast a spotlight on the continent’s farmers by inviting them to chart the pathways to resilient food systems in the continent. The session was premised on the fact that inclusive and sustainable agriculture transformation is pegged on the revolution of smallholder agriculture into a highly productive, efficient, competitive, and sustainable business.  

AGRA Awards and Prizes at the AGRF

Africa Food Prize – The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) was awarded the 2021 Africa Food Prize, for its work in improving food security across 13 sub-Saharan Africa countries in. ICRISAT, a CGIAR Research Center, is an international organization that conducts agricultural research for development in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. ICRISAT became the ninth winners of the USD100,000 award, which was first held in 2016 and sometimes shared between two innovators.

Pitch AgriHack – Six youth-led agribusinesses with market-ready innovations for African farmers won a share of the USD 45,000 Pitch AgriHack 2021 competition. SAYeTECH Company Limited in Ghana, which designs and manufactures climate-smart agricultural machinery won the early-stage category with Nigeria’s Rural Farmers Hub taking second place. The mature/growth-stage category was won by Liberia’s J Palm limited, for their innovative labour-saving technology in the production of palm oil. Nigeria’s Farmcrowdy Limited was the runner up. Meanwhile, Kenya’s GrowAgric won the women-led award, in recognition of their end-to-end solution, which optimizes the entire agriculture value chain, providing small and medium-scale farmers with training, marketing linkages and accessible working capital. Zimbabwe’s Fresh In A box took second place. In a fourth, invitation-only category, known as the AYuTe Africa Challenge, US$1.5 million in grants were awarded to two agritech businesses- ColdHubs and Hello Tractor. Cold Hubs provides solar powered cold storage options to smallholder farmers, while Hello Tractor connects farmers to tractor owners via a mobile app.

GoGettaz – Two agribusinesses working towards food systems transformation in Africa shared the USD100, 000 grand prize in the third GoGettaz Agripreneur Prize. The winners were Kenya’s Tracy Kimathi, founder of Tree_Sea.mals in Kenya and Rwanda’s Nshimiyimana Alexandre, co-founder of Sanit Wing Ltd. Kimathi’s company provides affordable off-grid cooling solutions for farmers while Alexandre’s enterprise is a community-focused avocado processing and manufacturing company dealing with oils, cosmetics and soaps. Beyond the two grand prizes, four entrepreneurs won USD 2,500 each in the Impact Social and Environmental category. These were: Fily Keita, co-founder and CEO of Agrowomen in Mali; Diana Orembe, co-founder and CEO of NovFeed in Tanzania; Gabriel Eze, co-founder and COO of Rural Farmers Hub in Nigeria, and Costantine Edward, founder of AgriLife in Tanzania.

WAYA – Three winners were awarded the inaugural VALUE4HER Women Agripreneur of the Year Awards (WAYA), which celebrates women agripreneurs that show remarkable innovation in their businesses. Bagging the USD100,000 top prize was Dr. Hajia Salamatu Garba, the Founder and Executive Director of the Women Farmers Advancement Network WOFAN, a network of cooperative societies owned by small-scale, low-income rice farmers in Northern Nigeria. Beatrice Nkatha M’Munyi of Kenya’s Sorghum Pioneers was the first runners-up, winning USD 7,000 while Linda Manyeza, the founder and director of South Africa’s Food Masters Limited took home the USD 5,000 third prize.  

When Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) was founded in 2006, it was out of a clear, urgent need for leadership in transforming the continent’s agricultural systems. This would deliver increased food and nutrition for all, better incomes for farmers, and resilience for the environment.

Having been there from the start, I can confirm that it was clear from the beginning that the agricultural transformation AGRA was created to spur had to be pursued in a unique way. Critically, it was important that any approach was African-owned and African-led.

Over the years, AGRA has pursued these headline goals, with a mixed bag of success and lessons learned. While there have always been detractors of our approach and success, these voices have become louder, deciding to campaign against our work through the media, despite being offered opportunities and engage directly. And unfortunately, some facts, have been lost in the process.

Let’s start with some facts I hope we can all agree on. Africa’s 33 million smallholder farmers are the beating heart of the food system, growing about 70% of the food we eat every day. Over the last two decades, the African continent has registered the most rapid rate of agricultural production growth of any region of the world. Unfortunately, most of this growth has been through the expansion of agricultural land, not an increase in productivity. With our population expected to double by the middle of the century, our farmers need to continue growing more, while using fewer resources.

There is no question that our food systems need to be transformed if we are to meet this challenge. Since 2006, our work has been focused on this task. Recently we’ve seen links drawn between our work and increasing levels of hunger. AGRA accounts for 1% of funding for African agriculture. We are such a small part of the ecosystem, so to attribute increasing levels of hunger to us is wrong and terribly misleading given it seems to ignore the impact conflict, the pandemic and climate change have on food security.

Disappointingly recent discussions on AGRA’s work have moved to ideological debates, where the solutions for transforming Africa’s food systems come down to one approach over another. Such binary debates are unhelpful and at times counterproductive. Building more resilient food systems on the continent will require a mix of approaches from agroecology to the latest crop and soil science.

Consider this: you can have the healthiest soil in the world, but if it is missing a micronutrient, or the crop variety you are using has limited yield potential, you will be no more productive than the farmer next door with poor soil. The judicious application of nutrients to agricultural soils is an established fact for helping improve soils, so why prohibit Africa’s farmers from doing it?

Another area I would like to correct is our work on seeds. Since 2006, AGRA’s funding has created almost 700 new crop varieties across 18 crops. Many, if not all the varieties were developed by local scientists at national institutions, who were working with local farmers to specifically tackle the challenges they face. Our funding has helped almost 120 entrepreneurs develop or expand their local businesses to ensure these and many other seeds and supplies can get to farmers. As a result, farmers need to travel 10km to get supplies, a decade ago they would travel at least 30km.

The idea that Africa’s seed systems have been overtaken by multinationals is not just wrong but insulting to the hundreds of entrepreneurs running seed local companies working with farmers day-in-day-out.

Since 2006, we have decided to invest in action over debates. Our work has been to ensure we put in place the environment needed to help farmers thrive.

In Ethiopia, for example, we equipped the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) with the technical support leading to exemption of duties on selected agricultural machinery, irrigation technologies and animal feed processing machinery, as well as agricultural inputs. The outcome of this support has been increased access to high-quality mechanisation services and technologies by smallholder farmers, with projected increases in yields.

While in Rwanda, AGRA has extensively supported the government’s plan to develop the local seed industry, leading to the country becoming self-sufficient in improved high-yielding maize varieties. Such success may not have been forthcoming without the participation of over 37 scientists trained by AGRA to lead the development of 47 varieties of different crops, among them maize, beans, soybeans, Irish potatoes, sweet potatoes, bananas and more.

And in Kenya, we have seen a rapid rejuvenation of the Kakamega Forest, the country’s only tropical rainforest, through investments in agroecology and other regenerative agriculture strategies. So far, this project has seen over 6,000 hectares of land in the Kakamega-Nandi ecosystem under sustainable land use with plans for replication and scaling for more-encompassing benefits.

These are just three examples of how our work supports local partners, to build on their knowledge while boosting food production and respecting nature.

The task of tackling hunger, malnutrition and climate change requires all of us working together to deliver resilient food systems in the continent. What the continent needs is sustainable agricultural practices that deliver sufficient food. Each of us share this vision and we all can contribute to achieving it.

Ultimately, it is the collaborative efforts of Africa-based organisations like AGRA, governments and other interest groups that will lead to more food and trade opportunities for the continent. I call upon the entire African continent to work together to contribute ideas and lessons to tackle the hunger challenge we face.

Originally published: https://africanarguments.org/

Africa is at a crossroads. As one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, it has a strong incentive to join global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and bolster its adaptive capacity.

 At the same time, African governments are committed to industrializing their economies in order to meet the basic needs of growing populations and create jobs and wealth.³ If the continent is to achieve both, it cannot afford to follow the same route to economic prosperity that developed nations have pursued.

Globally, countries are setting out plans to reduce their GHG emissions by the middle of the century in order to limit a rise in global average temperatures that scientists warn will bring ever-more extreme weather events and a catastrophic rise in sea levels, fueling hunger and migration.

Additionally, unchecked growth in emissions in Africa would likely lead to economic impacts, including reduced financing options and emissions-related export penalties, which could weigh on long-term growth and well-being.

In finding a new path that respects planetary limits while also delivering on economic imperatives, Africa can turn the fact that its manufacturing sector is still relatively small—contributing just 3 percent to global manufacturing GHG emissions and 2 percent to global manufacturing value add (MVA)—to its advantage.

Because half of the continent’s potential 2050 GHG-emitting industries have not yet been built, Africa has an opportunity to leapfrog more developed nations and build a low-carbon manufacturing sector from the ground up.

It could therefore avoid future costs by sidestepping the expensive transition from fossil fuels to renewables that the developed world is having to navigate while creating a competitive and more resilient economy that does not rely on resources that will become increasingly more costly.

Many African leaders already recognize this opportunity, as Dr. Arkebe Oqubay, Senior Minister and Special Adviser to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, says: “Economic development that destroys the environment is no longer a viable option.

As latecomers to industrialization, African countries have the opportunity to develop environmentally sound manufacturing sectors by leapfrogging historic greenhouse gas emitting technologies and adopting green industrial policies.”

However, the transition to a green manufacturing sector will be challenging. Africa already faces difficulties in attracting investments—the African Development Bank estimates a $70 billion per annum financing gap for African infrastructure.

This financing challenge will be exacerbated by the capital needs of green manufacturing and by the fact that some high-emitting industrial assets could become stranded, causing further profitability and capital availability challenges.

In addition, the continent will need to tackle capability and talent gaps, and address the issue that newly created jobs will often be in different regions or countries than jobs that are phased out. Identifying approaches that allow for a “just transition” will be of utmost importance.⁷

To help inform the planning efforts of policy makers and business leaders at this critical juncture, this report seeks to analyze and understand the continent’s manufacturing-emissions trajectory by exploring various abatement approaches for the long term.

Our analysis also examines the potential costs and likely benefits and opportunities across the value chain and offers five areas for possible action to help the continent reach net zero by 2050—an international benchmark inscribed in the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Business as usual would take Africa down an unsustainable path

Globally, manufacturing and the power it consumes is the single largest contributor to GHG emissions and, as such, has a significant role in achieving the 1.5°C pathway. And while Africa’s contribution to these emissions is currently small, this will inevitably rise as the continent industrializes and if no steps are taken to mitigate the effects.

African manufacturing currently emits about 440 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e)—about 30 to 40 percent of total African emissions.

If Africa’s manufacturing sector follows the growth trajectory of developed markets over the past 20 to 30 years, it will likely double in size, and without any decarbonization efforts its emissions could nearly double as well to about 830 MtCO₂e by 2050.

This would not only set the world back on its overall emissions reduction targets but could put the continent at an economic disadvantage. As the rest of the world seeks to pull ahead in the race to net zero, Africa’s manufacturing sector could become uncompetitive and find itself unable to export globally.

Many countries outside Africa have committed to ambitious abatement goals and are starting to pass laws and implement taxes on GHG emissions of imported goods. This could leave the continent even more dependent on international development support.

To remain competitive, our analysis shows the sector would likely need to reduce its scope 1 and 2 manufacturing emissions by about 90 percent relative to 2018 levels as part of the international effort to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 where an overall balance is achieved between emissions produced and emissions taken out of the atmosphere.

The remaining 10 percent could be compensated using additional technologies and tactics such as carbon capture and storage, and reforestation.

The bulk of Africa’s manufacturing emissions—75 percent—comes from four economies (South Africa, 37 percent; Egypt, 20 percent; Algeria, 10 percent; and Nigeria, 7 percent) driven by factors including their level of development, population size, high concentration of high-emitting sectors such as cement and refining, and share of manufacturing in GDP.

Furthermore, about 80 percent of scope 1 emissions are concentrated in five high-emitting industries: cement (32 percent of total manufacturing emissions); coal-to-liquids, a technology that produces liquid fuels and petrochemicals from coal (13 percent); petroleum refining (5 percent); iron and steel (6 percent); and ammonia, which is primarily used in the production of fertilizers (4 percent). Scope 2 emissions from the power consumed across the manufacturing sector contribute about 27 percent to total manufacturing emissions.

Targeting power decarbonization, along with these five high-emitting sectors, is therefore likely to yield the greatest abatement—and there is increasing pressure on these sectors to act now to “grow green.” As a result, many global companies that operate in Africa are starting to commit to a net-zero pathway.¹²

An all-out abatement effort could see the manufacturing sector cut emissions by 90 percent to reach net zero by 2050

In this article, we summarize three possible scenarios we modeled to help illustrate the potential of green manufacturing in Africa (Exhibit 2). More detail is available in our report: Africa’s green manufacturing crossroads: Choices for a low-carbon industrial future.

In each scenario, we explore a selected set of levers and industry actions that could result in a reduction of scope 1 emissions and highlight power decarbonization scenarios to reduce scope 2 emissions.

Our base-case scenario assumes African countries meet their current National Determined Contributions (NDC) commitments under the Paris Agreement but make no additional efforts to decarbonize.

This would see emissions from African manufacturing grow by about 70 percent by 2050 to 755 MtCO₂e, a marginal improvement on a business-as-usual path where no efforts are made to decarbonize. Our second scenario, the global NDC-guided scenario, assumes that Africa’s NDC commitments are increased in line with the global average.

This pathway would see emissions peak by around 2025 and drop back to 2018 levels in 2030. By 2050, overall emissions could be reduced by about 25 percent relative to 2018 levels to 330 MtCO₂e. This is equivalent to a 56 percent reduction versus the base case.

Both these scenarios largely track the current situation, and most of the actions available to industry to reach these targets would involve relatively inexpensive brownfield improvements with some greenfield investment for new capacity using technologies that are already available or likely to become available at industrial scale in the short to medium term.

However, if the continent wants to keep pace with the commitments being made in the rest of the world, which are necessary to keep global temperature rises below the 1.5°C target, it would have to pursue a much more rigorous abatement strategy as outlined in our third net-zero scenario.

This scenario assumes that African manufacturing would be using all available levers to drive a steep decline in emissions, leading to emissions amounting to just 47 MtCO₂e by 2050.

These gains would be driven primarily by the aggressive adoption of low-carbon technologies to ensure that new investments across manufacturing, but especially in high-emitting sectors, do not add GHG emissions.

A significant transition to renewables in the power sector, along with a marked reduction of demand in specific sectors as low-carbon alternatives become available, would also play a vital role in reaching the net-zero target.

The economic implications of decarbonizing African manufacturing

Decarbonizing Africa’s manufacturing and power sectors and building new green assets are likely to have profound economic implications for the continent, ensuring that African manufacturing can grow and create jobs without adding emissions and remain globally competitive. However, this pathway has significant costs.

To reach net zero would likely require $2 trillion of additional investments in manufacturing and power over the next three decades. About $600 billion would be needed to decarbonize existing manufacturing industries and power networks—both through investments to retrofit brownfield manufacturing facilities and into new greenfield facilities that are zero-carbon by design.

The remaining $1.4 trillion could help create new, low-emitting substitution businesses that replace or supplement high-emitting legacy sectors, specifically coal-to-liquids, petroleum refining, and cement. For example, cross-laminated timber is a sustainable replacement for traditional cement and could be used to build new green infrastructure, while charging stations to power the growing electric vehicles market could supplant the need for coal-to-liquids technology and reduce the need for petroleum refining by up to 70 percent.

Financing the power sector’s green growth would be a key enabler of decarbonization efforts. Michael Turner, Director, Actis—a leading global growth markets investor—says: “As African economies industrialize and energy demand increases, the availability of affordable green energy will be vital. Without green power, it will not be possible to realize Africa’s green manufacturing potential.”

Existing transmission and distribution networks would need to be upgraded to absorb a higher share of intermittent (renewable) power. A macro shift towards renewable energy sources, of which the continent has an abundance, could also be a focus.

While existing fossil-fuel infrastructure means that this technology remains competitive in the short term, a longer-term lens shows renewables to be the most cost-effective technology to build and run in all regions within the next ten years.

Even in countries where solar and wind are less abundant, such as Nigeria, there is scope for a marked shift towards renewables, and companies like Auxano—the first privately owned solar photovoltaic manufacturing company in Nigeria—and Nayo Tropical Technology have been active for several years providing solar inverter solutions and manufacturing solar panels and other components for mini-grid and solar home systems respectively.¹⁴

Our modeling indicates that investments are also likely to pay off over time. Assuming a carbon price of zero, our analysis indicates that about 50 percent of all net-zero investments would be net present value (NPV) positive without additional supporting mechanisms by 2030.

However, if a functioning carbon market can be built across Africa enabling African manufacturers to buy and sell carbon credits linked to carbon prices in export markets, the proportion of investments that are NPV positive could rise.¹⁵ Our analysis indicates that a carbon price of $50 per ton of CO₂e could ensure 60 percent of investments would be NPV positive by 2030.

Furthermore, decarbonization-fueled growth could create around 3.8 million net new jobs. While about two million jobs may be lost in legacy industries in both the manufacturing and power sectors as consumers switch to greener alternatives, just under six million new jobs are likely to be created in emerging green businesses by 2050, chiefly in electric vehicle charging infrastructure and cross-laminated timber, and with strong growth in the wind and solar industries.

One caveat is crucial; a large share of new jobs would be coming from new businesses that do not yet exist in Africa and it will be important to capture this value inside Africa rather than importing these products and skills and risk a net loss of jobs. For example, East African electric motorcycle startup, Ampersand, a leading electric vehicle operation in the region that leases or sells purpose-built electric two-wheelers to motorcycle taxi drivers, assembles all motorcycles and batteries on site, helping to ensure that the next generation of African developers and engineers are being nurtured in Africa.

African entrepreneurs and financiers can capture new game-changing business opportunities

Africa’s emissions in the next 30 years are expected to come from future growth and the rapid uptake of new green manufacturing opportunities to create new jobs, produce new products that are less carbon-intensive, and embrace new low-emitting production processes is a key part of this.

Our analysis identified 24 new business opportunities across several sectors including agriculture, biofuels, basic materials, energy, packaging and plastics, transportation, and textiles and apparel—each having substantial potential for green growth. Of these, eight businesses stand out.

These new businesses could embrace opportunities in two main areas: new products that displace existing carbon-intensive products, for example, the production of plant-based proteins, which are fast gaining market share across the world; and the development of new industries and new processes that support green transportation or enable the energy transition.

Two examples here include the manufacturing of wind turbine components to supply the fast-growing wind sector on the continent and the manufacturing of electric two-wheelers.

These opportunities offer African entrepreneurs and financiers exciting prospects. Those who act fast to take advantage of them could benefit from Africa’s unique resource advantage, including its range of natural resources, solid renewable energy capabilities, and a significant amount of uncultivated or under-cultivated land. Africa has an estimated 60 percent of the world’s uncultivated arable land.

Agnes Kalibata, President of AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa), points out that this makes agricultural-based technologies such as plant-based protein, cross-laminated timber, and biofuels particularly appealing on the African continent.

“Agriculture-based technologies may offer solutions for Africa’s low-carbon growth agenda. These will not only help abate GHG emissions but can also help increase farmers’ incomes and create new jobs,” she says.

Investing in new and unfamiliar sectors and technologies may be risky and would depend on the appetite of innovative entrepreneurs and financiers to seize these new opportunities to drive green growth, but the benefits of doing so could be substantial.

New green businesses could deliver billions of dollars of revenues per year while collectively helping to abate the continent’s GHG emissions across the supply chain by up to 60 MtCO₂e annually by 2030; they also have the potential to create about 700,000 direct and indirect jobs by 2030, with even stronger job growth in the decades beyond.

Five potential areas of action to reach net zero by 2050

Decarbonizing Africa’s manufacturing sector by 2050 is a significant and difficult undertaking that would require a cohesive effort from various stakeholders, including governments, businesses, international organizations, development finance institutions, investors, and civil society. The transition also needs to be a just one to ensure that no one is left behind. Our analysis has identified five important areas of action to consider:

1. Shift to a net-zero mindset and policy environment. A strong correlation exists between countries where the population is highly aware of the climate risk issue and those that have made strong decarbonization commitments.¹⁷ While all African countries have made intended NDC commitments, only 12 have ratified these.¹⁸ To drive the required mindset change, stakeholders could work together to raise public awareness through public debates and education campaigns at all levels. Developing green growth strategies to ensure that countries capture the full opportunity emerging from green businesses while adapting and improving the resilience of their manufacturing sectors could also be important. These efforts would need to be complemented by strong green policies to ensure change happens. African governments would have a role to play, first in setting concrete and specific targets and NDCs, and second, by putting in place the enabling regulatory environment and direct support mechanisms for a green-manufacturing ecosystem.
2. Unlock green financing. With an estimated $2 trillion investment over 30 years required to achieve net zero in Africa, significant efforts would be needed to mobilize green financing on the continent. In approaching this challenge, stakeholders can consider three actions: developing a strong pipeline of investable green projects; developing new green financing instruments that match the different risk and return profiles for green investments; and establishing a strong baseline and verification system for GHG emissions that give financiers confidence that their investments are yielding the expected carbon savings. A transparent financing system could help make investors the de facto enforcers of companies’ committed decarbonization efforts.
3. Upgrade green infrastructure. Africa’s infrastructure lags behind that of the rest of the world, and this is a major roadblock for development on the continent. Our analysis suggests that important precursors for green manufacturing growth include renewable energy, transport, recycling, an enabling business ecosystem (e.g., green financing), and data infrastructure (e.g., carbon databases to monitor and track decarbonization progress). In meeting this backlog, public–private partnerships could play an important role in helping to speed up new builds and investments in critical green infrastructure.
4. Upskill and reskill the workforce. Decarbonization would require major changes in various dimensions of industry and skills needs are likely to change with them. It is likely large private companies would drive much of the change by hiring and training workers in new skills, but governments and development partners could help too in three important ways, particularly in offering support to small and medium-size enterprises. First, workforce planning and simulations could help to identify key changes and anticipate future skills required in the job market, as well as to define new occupational standards and develop appropriate curricula; second, the development of skills certifications for new green jobs could support skills mobility; and third, shared infrastructure development such as training institutes and factories could help to speed up reskilling.
5. Accelerating R&D. Developing viable new green sectors, technologies and products that are specific to Africa’s needs would be an important priority, and investors and the public and private sectors could support significant R&D efforts to drive this. On the one hand, local research could focus on projects that are relevant to Africa, but not a priority globally, such as local circular economy solutions and processes to reduce emissions. On the other hand, Africa could take steps to fast track the development of new green businesses. One action to facilitate this could be to set up dedicated green manufacturing accelerators to spur innovation and enable the scale-up of new green manufacturing technologies (notably through research partnerships) and businesses across the continent.

An opportunity to reimagine Africa’s growth path

The path to net-zero emissions may not be easy, but the risks of not achieving this goal, according to our analysis, outweigh the costs and sacrifices that would have to be made to get there.

Action is more urgent now than ever, as the window to keep global warming below 1.5°C narrows. Across multiple sectors, the technology is readily available today, with additional low-carbon technologies expected to reach maturity and economic viability from 2030 to close the gap to full decarbonization by 2050. Meanwhile, investors and businesses have an opportunity to move fast and seize new green-manufacturing business opportunities.

At this critical juncture, and as Africa seeks to manage the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and chart a path to recovery, there is an opportunity to step back and reimagine the continent’s growth path with a more sustainable mindset.

Africa’s manufacturing story can be about innovation, about new kinds of jobs, financing, and technology that are geared towards building a more sustainable and equitable society that will be felt for generations to come.

Authors

Kartik Jayaram is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Nairobi office, Adam Kendall is a partner in the Lagos office, Ken Somers is a partner in the Brussels office, and Lyes Bouchene is a consultant in the Casablanca office.

Bashiru Musah, the country manager of the AGRA (Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa) is calling for an integrated approach to improving world food security as global leaders gather for the United Nations Food Systems Summit on Thursday (23 September).

“I expect the Food Systems Summit to come up with renewed commitments for us to be able to adopt a more holistic approach to food systems in Africa. I am looking at a food system that can help us tackle hunger and poverty so that we can improve our nutrition and the general wellbeing of our people,” he told Emmanuel Aboagye Wiafe on the Asaase Business News on Thursday (23 September 2021).

He said, “We expect our leaders to speak with one voice and call for change in the way food is produced and processed. So, we are proposing that one of the things the world should be looking at is investments in agribusiness for smallholder farmers.”

“Most of the foods we eat, 90% of it is produced by smallholder farmers. The SDGs are very important indicators for us set by the UN hunger and poverty in Africa can only end if we can build a resilient food system that is integrated with the world economy,” Musah said.

He added, “We need to tackle food systems from farm to table. We need to look beyond the production and look at how we are able to connect the different aspects of the value chain when it comes to food production and ensures we have public and private sector participation to provide the storage, infrastructure and technology in a very conducive policy environment that enables agriculture to triumph.”

The country director of AGRA said there was the need to have long-term planning and not just tackling food insecurity challenges piecemeal.

“Through past experience, we know that technologies (such as quality seed and fertilizers) help ensure better farm productivity and can help tackle some of these challenges. Especially in this era when climate change is negatively impacting agriculture. We believe such technologies are best delivered to farmers if packaged as a suite of services from local businesses, and after a lot of research, discussions, and collaborations. So, we all need to work together,” he said.

The UN’s Extraordinary Global Food Systems summit will launch bold and new actions to help deliver progress on all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), each of which relies to some degree on the goal of achieving zero hunger.

The meeting was deemed necessary because the world currently is not on track to meet the zero-hunger target and other SDGs by 2030 unless drastic actions are taken.

Thursday’s summit will synthesize discussions that have taken place over the last 18 months during independent dialogues organised by governments, NGOs and private sector organisations.